USDCAD - Edition #2

Quick update on our first currency pair and a time to relax from current position.

We anticipated the move prior to the Bank of Canada decision. The rate cut was expected and arguably fully anticipated. Now what? The Canadian dollar is at an inflection point and also has an obvious trend.

22-month high, almost two years of consolidation and price testing the same level for the fifth time: will it have the strength to break imminently when so much is already known? Sentiment certainty may be discounted, but technically it has established a new 2024 high. So unless it breaks below 1.38045, let the ride continue!

The monthly has just managed to print another 6-bar bullish signal (enough momentum to consider a trade) and sits at the inflection point of 1.38355. We can't be bearish here, but cautiously optimistic, as reaching 1.38976 before October would trigger another bullish signal from a macro (quarterly) standpoint.

Actions to take:

• In general, keep the trade active and wait for the quarterly signal I just mentioned. This will give us a strong directional bias for the next few months.
• Cut the trade below 1.38045 as it will impose a failed breakout on the daily.