Solana (SOL) - Edition #2

Solana Price Update: Preparing for Breakout or Retrace?

It’s time for an update on Solana (SOL), as it appears to be showing signs of weakness near a critical supply zone. This zone could delay a breakout to new all-time highs (ATH) for about a month or so, considering its significance. Let's revisit the analysis shared in the previous update and reset the expectations based on current trends.

Reflecting on Previous Trends

In my previous article, "Solana SOL Edition 1",I outlined two possible scenarios: one where Solana breaks out to new all-time highs (ATHs) and another where the trend stalls and consolidates for a few more months. At the time, I placed too much focus on the first outcome—the breakout—especially since the price was just $19 away from confirming the trend. While I did mention the possibility of the price ranging and consolidating, I didn’t emphasize it enough. As it turned out, the breakout didn’t happen, and Solana entered an extended period of consolidation, lasting for about three more months.

The second key update came from "Solana SOL In The Same Vein". At the time, no signal had triggered, and the price quickly tapped into the $125 zone—an important pivot point for the bulls to stay in control of the current range. I had recommended buying below $130, which was the most reasonable level to add exposure, and it turned out to be the bottom before the impulse move upwards on the weekly timeframe.

Current Outlook: What's Next for Solana?

So, where do we stand now? We’ve had several opportunities to get into Solana at lower levels like $130 and $160 (the latter was mentioned on Telegram). Now that we are up quite a bit, let’s break down the weekly and monthly timeframes to understand the potential next moves.

Weekly Timeframe: Resistance Zone and Potential Retrace

Right now, Solana is facing a significant resistance area. If you followed the Telegram updates, you should have already taken profits by now.

My suggestion: It’s a good time to take some profits and “pay yourself.” You can wait for a retrace to a daily support zone or for a potential reclaim of the $246 level (marked with the orange line). At current prices, most should be sitting on over 80% gains from the initial calls, so selling here should feel comfortable.

If the weekly candle closes bearish, signaling a potential retrace, we could see a pullback into the daily block ~$200. However, remember that once the trend is confirmed, retraces are often short-lived and tend to get front-run. So, don’t expect to see $170 again unless the market reverses significantly.

Key levels to watch for:

• Buy zone: If the price retraces, look for a buy near $205. If this zone fails, we could see a deeper pullback to the middle of the range, around $161–$170.
• Breakout: If Solana reclaims the $246 level, it’s a clear buy signal towards $300.

Monthly Timeframe: Bullish Long-Term Trend

On the monthly chart, the trend remains highly bullish, especially given the size of the current bullish candle. For a confirmation of continued strength, I’d like to see the monthly close above $246. This would set us up for a possible bullish retrace into December and open the door for further upside into Q1 2025.

Looking further ahead:
There’s a chance Solana could continue to rise through July 2025, mirroring a similar pattern from October 2023 when we saw a significant price expansion. If that happens, our targets remain the same—$300 and $700 as the most realistic objectives for the next year.

However, we need to focus on closing November on a positive note, especially above the weekly supply zone at $246. Any retrace should ideally not drop below $200, as that aligns with the second-highest monthly closes historically.

The Bigger Picture: Could We Top Out Sooner?

There’s also the possibility that Solana may trend faster than expected, especially in Q1 of next year. If this happens, we could see a top closer to March or April rather than waiting all the way until July 2025. This would align with the previous expansion cycle we saw in 2023.

In summary:
Solana remains one of the best crypto assets to trade. Even with the recent consolidation, it's important to keep an eye on the major levels discussed. We’re still tracking the $300 target, but don’t overlook the potential for a quicker top if the momentum in Q1 2025 mirrors past patterns.

Additionally, exploring the beta assets like $RAY, $JUP, $MEW, $POPCAT, and $BONK could offer exciting opportunities for portfolio diversification.

Stay tuned for more updates, and always trade with caution.