EURUSD

Imminent breakout?

I think if we start evaluating this type of chart, we can notice the bullish dominance in itself. It is more than clear that in any kind of consolidation it is quite complicated to try to anticipate the direction of the market. Many are willing to bet on an accumulation or distribution at the extremes of the established ranges but only after a bit of data can we lean towards one of the two and manage to take the trade in favor of the market, or get out in time if we miss it completely :).

This has been stalled for 20 months, quite a long period but super constructive as it has been consolidating below (intercrossing) of what was the markets '20 low creation, aka covid. This implies that the current breakout we are witnessing, if established above 1.10328, will last at least 10 months. 

Let's evaluate the MACRO:

• First 5-bar bullish mode. Last one was in November 2020.
• 10 days to close above the key level that generated the March 2020 low.
• Has the tightest price contraction in the history of this chart. It is second only to '72 and maybe '76.

We can say that we are a little late to the trade by missing the retest entry of the 1.095 bi-monthly level, but a new setup above 1.103 is still valid as the monthly trend has just issued a bullish signal. This is something that hasn't happened since Nov '20 so I think it is worth the risk after so many attempts to break out of this range.

Daily

It is flying as I write this post and comes with an already confirmed uptrend which expires by the close of the week. 

For those hesitating to enter, it seems late as it has been gaining momentum since the change in structure. So, it wouldn't hurt to wait and enter next week in case of a pullback. 

• 1.095 should remain as the range low in case it consolidates a couple of weeks above the breakout level.
• The trend has been bullish since July 17 and has been validated by the latest momentum it has been making. 

From what the chart shows, the time has come for the EURO. It is best to take action and lean towards a possible breakout and what it entails. Strong moves in the forecast if the slow period is really over.