Crypto Update: Key Trends and Movements This Week

Quick Look into $BTC:

The price has dipped below the yearly mid-level three times without significant downward continuation. Currently, both daily and weekly stochastics are at their lows, while the demand zone around $50k-$52k remains firm.

Current Sentiment:

• Sentiment is fairly bearish as we approach support. While Bitcoin has been printing lower highs and lower lows for months, indicating a downtrend (for now), the movement has been less aggressive compared to previous Bitcoin corrections.
• Instead, it resembles more orderly rotational moves seen at past all-time highs. This lack of aggressive momentum and continuation suggests a different dynamic compared to previous market tops.

Technical Considerations:

• Previous posts highlighted the importance of Bitcoin maintaining a bullish structure on the weekly and monthly timeframes, despite resistance pushing prices lower. This consolidation could resemble a distribution due to the lower highs, but the lack of price velocity below the yearly mid-level is more telling.
• From a technical perspective, things are still 50/50. Recently, the $53.5k level was critical. We should avoid getting overly confident or biased without clear macro confirmation. Currently, we can still anticipate a continuation of this bounce leading up to the FOMC meeting. If this turns out to be the low, there will be ample opportunities for long positions.

Altcoin Observations:

• Most altcoins are either approaching or falling below their yearly open levels, demonstrating weaker performance compared to Bitcoin. If a market reversal is imminent, it is likely to occur around these levels, where many previous upward impulses started. However, many altcoins may continue to underperform against Bitcoin and remain in a downtrend relative to it.
• Opportunities to outperform Bitcoin may arise but will likely be short-lived. Key altcoins at critical levels are worth watching for potential trades.

Coin Analysis:

ARB:

• Not the most promising chart, as it has dropped to the low from Binance’s listing date. However, it is now trading above the monthly open, which supports the current low.
• The moving average is close by; if ARB establishes itself above it, this will add strength to the bullish case.

FTM:

• FTM has shown the strongest bounce among Layer 1s so far, reacting well off the previous low. It’s approaching a flip into bullish structure but isn't there yet. Keep it on your radar and be prepared to act if the low holds.

FET:

• Similar to FTM but cleaner in structure. Though it might be late for a long entry, its current structure is worth noting.
• Watch for reactions at the moving average; entering within a bullish context is crucial, not just based on a simple flip. FET has reclaimed above the previous floor before the breakdown, indicating a strong bullish move.

OP:

• OP is close to turning bullish, as it’s about to make a higher high from the current low. It’s still a bit away from a full bullish reversal, with the macro level to watch being around $1.9-$2.

INJ:

• INJ has had a perfect retest of the monthly block at $13.5. It experienced a failed breakout earlier this year and is now at a pivotal area.
• For a bullish outlook, price needs to move above $19.5, which has been a respected mid-level throughout the year.

NEAR:

• NEAR is set up for a potential bounce but hasn’t yet shown strong movement.
• Key levels to watch include the yearly retest and any higher low after the 2024 low. The moving average is close to the price and validates the downtrend, so a break above will be also a trigger.

Final Thoughts:

Stay adaptable with current market conditions. If Bitcoin holds the mid-yearly level and a bullish flip occurs, altcoins may experience a significant move in the last quarter. If not, shorting the market towards new lows could be the strategy.